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Episode 439: The Email Answers You Asked For
Date April 30, 2014 Summary Ben and Sam answer listener emails about Jose Fernandez, the best baseball PED, a pitcher with perfect command, and more. Topics * Developing a PED * Stats vs. Scouts in 1915 * Low OBP players and hitting without a bat * Pitcher with perfect command * Worst hitting pitching staffs * Japanese pitchers hitting * Purpose and appeal of sabermetrics * Marge Schott * Great players on terrible teams Intro Elliott Smith, "A Question Mark" Banter * Greg Dobbs was DFA'd by the Marlins. He signed an extension in the middle of last season. * Freddy Garcia's earnings in Taiwanese baseball * guess career earnings Email Questions * Scott: "If you could engineer a new performance enhancing drug which specifically baseball performance aspect would be most beneficial to enhance? Either as it relates to team success or individual career earning potential. Would it be one of the five tools or something far more particular? Mike Trout-iness is a bit too broad a response for this question." * Eric: "I was listening to friend of the podcast Kevin Kerrane's appearance with Jesse Thorn. In the intriguing interview they go back to the very early days of scouting where it seems people tended to just play hunches and tips from anyone who might know. It seems like scouting then, pre World War I, was just as infantile as statistical knowledge was in those days. So my question is, if you were running a team in say 1915, would you rather have a great modern day scout or a great stats guy?" * Kevin (Toronto): "As I write this on Tuesday morning Moises Sierra of the Blue Jays is currently sporting an .067/.097/.067/.163 slash line with a paltry two hits, both singles, and one walk in 31 plate appearances. Given this lack of production would Sierra have a greater chance of reaching base if he went to the plate without a bat in his hand and tried to draw a walk or HBP before being called out on strikes? How low would a hitter's OBP have to be before it made sense for him to go to the plate without a bat?" * Fred (Kazakhstan): "What do you think the batting slash line would be for the league against an average pitcher with average stuff except that he has absolutely perfect control? I have always wondered how well batters could hit if pitchers never made mistakes." * Kyle: "What do you think is the essence or ultimate purpose of sabermetrics? Some possibilities include: to increase enjoyment in the game, to change to evaluation strategy of multiple aspects of the game, to question the norms and traditions of the game, to re-ask basic questions to learn more about what truly matters in baseball, and the acceptance of outside thinking to make improvements. I am curious what fuels our passion for sabermetrics and why it has caught on so readily?" * Aaron: "If Donald Sterling owned a baseball team how do you think MLB or Bud Selig would have handled the situation?" * Danny: "Considering the national narrative surround the Marlins prior to the start of last season, has any player provided more value on the field and in the national conversation than Jose Fernandez has over these past thirteen months? I know this is impossible to quantify with just baseball numbers however attempts at value assessments often cite how the financial impact of each win over 81 can carry dramatically higher return than those in the middle. Do you think the same is possible for an electric and dominating player on a team that wins 70ish games? This is a essentially the same question we could've asked about young Felix Hernandez although to me the 2012-13 Marlins offseason narrative seemed like a special kind of rock bottom." Play Index * Inspired by the fact that the Mets' pitching staff is 0-42 this season with no walks, Sam wants to find the worst hitting pitching staff ever. He then tries to figure out if Japanese born pitchers hit worse than American born pitchers. * The 1965 Detroit Tigers had a .214 OPS. The 2010 Dodgers' pitchers hit .081/.132/.088. * In a 22 year sample, the batting average of Japanese pitchers is .21 points lower than non-Japanese pitchers. Notes * Freddy Garcia is the highest paid player in Taiwanese baseball history, making $392,000 per year. * Sam says he would most want to add speed to a player. Ben would want to give pitchers a super strong elbow ligament. * Kevin Kerrane appeared on Episode 324 to talk about Dollar Sign on the Muscle. * In Episode 255, Ben and Sam also discussed the value of utilizing modern day stats to inform baseball in the early 1900s. * Sam figures you can get an OBP of .091 to .110 without ever swinging. * According to Zachary Levine if a pitcher throws strikes 75% of the time, the batter has a 4% chance to walk without swinging (OBP .040). If a pitcher throws strikes 67% of the time the batter has a 10% chance to walk (OBP .100). Ben thinks the 0% chance of a swing changes the odds of throwing a strike. Sam thinks the 0% scenario already occurs whenever the count is 3-0 with a pitcher batting. * Ben and Sam agree that a pitcher with perfect control and perfect command would be Cy Young-level. * MLB's equivalent of Donald Sterling was Marge Schott, former owner of the Reds. She was suspended for the 1993 season over racist comments. In 1996, she made additional racist comments and was suspended for two and a half years. The threat of extending the suspension got her to sell her controlling interest. Ben suspects that if Selig had to deal with a racist owner today, he would act even more swiftly. * Sam notes that he included Jose Fernandez in his article on unconventional MVP candidates, and it was under-appreciated how important Fernandez was to baseball in Florida. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 439: The Email Answers You Asked For * Controversy over NBA's Sterling recalls twice-suspended late Reds owner Schott by Jay Jaffe Category:Email Episodes Category:Episodes